Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.004627 0.005094 0.005598 0.006183 0.006847 0.007578 0.008448
2025-08-10 0.003821 0.004457 0.005194 0.006118 0.007258 0.008628 0.010421
2025-08-17 0.003409 0.004129 0.005005 0.006163 0.007675 0.009612 0.012329
2025-08-24 0.003069 0.003826 0.004782 0.006099 0.007901 0.010330 0.013945
2025-08-31 0.002758 0.003519 0.004508 0.005917 0.007921 0.010741 0.015157
2025-09-07 0.002562 0.003338 0.004376 0.005900 0.008148 0.011447 0.016873
2025-09-14 0.002462 0.003274 0.004390 0.006081 0.008667 0.012628 0.019490
2025-09-21 0.002287 0.003091 0.004218 0.005969 0.008725 0.013095 0.020995
2025-09-28 0.002134 0.002925 0.004057 0.005854 0.008760 0.013517 0.022472
2025-10-05 0.002028 0.002819 0.003972 0.005846 0.008959 0.014227 0.024569
2025-10-12 0.001962 0.002767 0.003965 0.005955 0.009359 0.015323 0.027576
2025-10-19 0.001858 0.002652 0.003850 0.005880 0.009433 0.015840 0.029515
2025-10-26 0.001773 0.002563 0.003775 0.005873 0.009641 0.016663 0.032319
2025-11-02 0.001682 0.002459 0.003672 0.005809 0.009745 0.017307 0.034887
2025-11-09 0.001620 0.002398 0.003632 0.005851 0.010045 0.018375 0.038654
2025-11-16 0.001544 0.002309 0.003539 0.005791 0.010143 0.019038 0.041592
2025-11-23 0.001454 0.002192 0.003393 0.005621 0.010005 0.019181 0.043244
2025-11-30 0.001399 0.002129 0.003333 0.005605 0.010174 0.020016 0.046921
2025-12-07 0.001378 0.002123 0.003371 0.005774 0.010740 0.021831 0.053806
2025-12-14 0.001315 0.002041 0.003270 0.005669 0.010715 0.022259 0.056755
2025-12-21 0.001255 0.001963 0.003171 0.005561 0.010673 0.022640 0.059669
2025-12-28 0.001215 0.001915 0.003125 0.005553 0.010851 0.023593 0.064699
2026-01-04 0.001193 0.001898 0.003134 0.005656 0.011288 0.025279 0.072752